Tourney discussions from non-jaded people

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by MikeD, Mar 12, 2004.

  1. MikeD

    MikeD Sports Genius

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    http://sports-att.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?page=bubblewatch

    Sometimes the bubble gets bigger, instead of smaller, the closer we get to Selection Sunday. Such was the case Friday, as two teams who couldn't afford early exits during Championship Week may have not only lost games but also their grasp on at-large bids.


    Inside the bubble
    Projected One-Bid Conferences: 17
    Projected Multi-Bid Conferences: 13
    Available Spots 65
    Automatic Bids 31
    At-Large Bids 34
    Projected "Locks" 41
    Open Spots 6
    "Locks" include 13 projected multi-bid conference champions, leaving 28 "locks" needing at-large bids and just six "open" at-large bids for bubble teams.
    Become an Insider today to go inside the Bubble Watch numbers with Joe Lunardi's daily updated InsideRPI



    LSU and Colorado each find themselves a little less secure about their NCAA futures after losing in the SEC and Big Ten quarterfinals. While still "locks" at this hour, what happens later tonight in places like Dallas, Los Angeles and Dayton, Ohio, have a direct effect on just how long the next 48 hours will be for both teams.


    For LSU (18-10), a 21-point loss to South Carolina was its sixth in seven games and fifth without Jaime Lloreda. The question for the Tigers becomes: Just what is their "body of work?" Is it the 17-4 record with Lloreda, or the spiral to Friday's end without him?


    Colorado, already on the bubble heading into Friday, is also 18-10 after its loss to Texas Tech. And while the Buffaloes didn't finish poorly, their "body of work" now looks a lot like several other teams arguing for at-large bids.


    Tonight, Florida State, Richmond, Washington, Oklahoma, Missouri, Western Michigan, Utah, UTEP and Nevada all play potential bubble-busting games. How each fares will impact both LSU's and Colorado's chances to dance.


    Oh, and keep an eye on both Villanova and Saint Louis in the Big East and C-USA tournaments. While both need automatic bids to dance, each are in the semifinals. If either wins two more games, it'll mean one less at-large bid for the bubble.

    "With Jaime Lloreda, LSU was a "lock." Without him, the Tigers have edged close to the bubble with each of their six losses in seven outings down the stretch. Now, following its 21-point drubbing at the hands of South Carolina on Friday in the SEC quarterfinals, LSU can't feel safe on Selection Sunday. Whether or not the committee gives LSU (18-10) credit for those wins with Lloreda remains to be seen. Losing to South Carolina is one thing, in the manner in which LSU did is another. LSU still has an RPI of 33 and is 5-5 against the top 50 with three top-25 RPI wins. But those marquee wins came with Lloreda, who won't dance even if the Tigers do. Georgia remains on the edge of the bubble. Beating Kentucky for a third time would have been huge. Now, the Dawgs (16-13) will need a lot of bubbles to pop around the country for its RPI of 51 to get them into the at-large debate Sunday. The Dawgs swept Kentucky during the regular season, but even with four top-25 wins, Georgia's best bet was to win the automatic bid. "
     
  2. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Georgia LOST
    Colorado LOST
    Oklahoma LOST
    St. Louis LOST
    UAB LOST
    Missouri LOST
    Florida State LOST
    Virginia LOST
    Villanova LOST
    Richmond LOST

    Washington WON
    UTEP WON
    Maryland WON
    W. Michigan WON
    Utah WON
    Nevada WON
    Cal. State Northridge WON (major upset over Utah State, who is already in)
     
  3. Jwho77

    Jwho77 Founding Member

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    We are not the same team without Lloreda. We do not deserve to be in the dance over any bubble team at full strength.
     
  4. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    With the upset of Utah State by Cal State Northridge, this will lower the remaining at-large bids available from 6 down to 5. Utah State will certainly get in, they have been in the top 25 for the past 6 weeks and they are 25-3.

    Maryland and Washington have secured 2 of these spots. Washington has now beaten Arizona 3 times and also beat Standford. And they face Stanford for an automatic bid possibility as well, but as I indicated, it doesn't matter, they have earned their way in. Maryland has played well down the stretch with a key win over a very good Wake Forest team in the ACC tourney, they have also locked up a spot. They have also beaten Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina and North Carolina State.

    I hope Florida State gets in somehow with an 18-13 record, but more than likely not. They are a team capable of making a run in the tourney (beat Ga. Tech, Wake Forest, North Carolina and Maryland).
     
  5. Jetstorm

    Jetstorm Founding Member

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    We certainly did not do ourselves any favors with yesterday's performance, but I have to think an 18-10 record, a .500 conference record, victories over Alabama (twice), Florida, and Utah, and an RPI in the Top 40 will be enough to get us in. Yes, we don't have Lloreda, and yes we are limping into the tourney, but still, when you consider the whole season, by any standard, we deserve to get in. Even if we only get a 10 or 11 seed, if that's what we deserve, give it to us.

    What we don't need is any more upsets in conference tournaments. The favorites that are left have to win out. Utah State and Washington are in, they are taking an at-large bid from somebody. Just hope it ain't us.

    I'm hearing talk of C-USA getting six teams in, that's also not good.
     
  6. tirk

    tirk im the lyrical jessie james

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    i thought so

    i thought so too til i heard Fl St has not won one road game. I know ACC is tough but no way i let them in based on that.
     
  7. Ken Ross

    Ken Ross Founding Member

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    I hate Florida State with every breath in my body and hope they get nothing, no matter how much they deserve it.
     
  8. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    This definitely is their achilles heel. And losing to Clemson on the road was their worst loss.
     
  9. jcnumberone

    jcnumberone Founding Member

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    I do not like Florida State at all either. My sole reason is because of Dick Vitale and his "non bias" analysis of who gets in to the tourney. He is such a pro Duke guy it really, really, makes me sick... OK I feel better now. Thank you for letting me get that off my chest.
     
  10. cajdav1

    cajdav1 Soldiers are real hero's

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    But they do not look at the whole body of work only, they take into account how you finished, and we were terrible at the finish, and they also take into account that Lloreda is not on the team and that we are not going to be the same team that won all of those games. If LSU gets in it would surprise the heck out of me but then again I've seen stranger things happen with the field of 54.
     

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