What are the actual chances Florida goes to the NC?

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by islstl, Nov 29, 2006.

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  1. LSUTiga

    LSUTiga TF Pubic Relations

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    You and your dam percentages.... :hihi: I was beginning to get worried, hadn't heard from you in a couple of hours. Figured you had to sleep sometimes. :thumb:
     
    LSUTiga, Nov 29, 2006
    #11
  2. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Yeah I got about 9 hours total sleep over a 2 day period, which wasn't good since I had a plane trip after the 2nd sleep deprived night. I got 12 hours last night, so I am back on the attack.

    I did a final prognostication in another thread on Florida going to the NC and I will repost here:

    USC losing to UCLA = 15 %
    Florida winning big over Arkansas = 10 %
    Human polls vaulting Florida past Michigan and into 2nd in the BCS = 50 %

    .15 X .10 X .50 = 0.0075

    Less than 1 percent chance.

    That's also why I posted the poll about Urban Meyer running up the score. He better get with the plan, should USC lose, if he wants him team to have a chance at the NC. A 21-14 win over Arkansas just won't get it done.
     
    islstl, Nov 30, 2006
    #12
  3. LSU

    LSU Founding Member

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    A very important thread now.
     
    LSU, Dec 2, 2006
    #13
  4. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Of utmost importance for some 32,000+ LSU fans.

    I'll do an analysis later on what if's on the computer polls (Michigan winning 3 of 4 over Florida vs. Florida winning 3 of 4 over Michigan....which could be the case just as easily as a 2-2 tie).
     
    islstl, Dec 2, 2006
    #14
  5. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    My guess still stands that if Florida has to hold on for dear life to win this game, then they stand no chance at surpassing Michigan. Anything "comfortable" margin of victory, and it's too close to call.

    I equate this to the Dems taking over the Senate this past month. Everything had to fall into place for them to pull it off. Might be what's happening to Florida as we speak, unfortunately for LSU.
     
    islstl, Dec 2, 2006
    #15
  6. TejasTiger

    TejasTiger Founding Member

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    Speaking of Rick Tellshow, let's see what he has to say (latest post on his site):

    Nov 27: Full update completed. If USC wins they will be in. Does UF have a shot if USC loses? Below is how I see the computers if USC loses - a tie between UF and Mich. Therefore UF will need to pass Michigan in the human polls for a chance at the MNC. Based on the voting so far this year, I think only a blowout win in the SECCG would do the trick for UF...Maybe even that won't be enough to sway the voters.

    Team ST RB WC KM JS PW BCS Ave
    1 Ohio State 1 1 2 1 1 1 1.00
    2 Michigan 3 2 3 3 2 2 2.50
    3 Florida 2 3 1 2 3 3 2.50
     
    TejasTiger, Dec 2, 2006
    #16
  7. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Yes, I emailed him and asked him to run a mock of USC losing and Florida winning and that is what he came up with.

    So, there is definitely a shot. If the computers come out as he says, then we are strictly down to the voters.

    1 out of 3. Just keep saying that to yourselves all night long. 1 out of 3. That's the margin of voters needing to switch their votes in favor of Florida.
     
    islstl, Dec 2, 2006
    #17
  8. macatak911

    macatak911 CRAIG STELTZ = BEAST

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    http://cfn.scout.com/2/596883.html

    "Who should play Ohio State for the national title? Michigan will most likely end up playing Ohio State in a rematch, but does it deserve it? "
     
    macatak911, Dec 2, 2006
    #18
  9. pensacola

    pensacola Founding Member

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    Welcome, gator lurkers. Lots of them are coming over to have a look at this thread.
     
    pensacola, Dec 2, 2006
    #19
  10. TigerFan90

    TigerFan90 Too far away from home

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    Do they need some assurance from us? Aren't we irrelevant to them? Are they worried that we might get a better bowl than them this year when they just won the SEC Championship? :lol:

    Just kidding, Gator fan. ;)
     
    TigerFan90, Dec 2, 2006
    #20
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