What are the actual chances Florida goes to the NC?

COramprat · Dec 3, 2006

My theory is USC lost on purpose in the hope we would get left out of the Rose Bowl. Another reason to hate USC...

Anyway...The Rose could still take LSU over Michigan should Florida get to Glendale. They still would have the at large. It would boil down to dollars I think. Will Michigan travel? We know LSU will...in bunches. Wow...that scenario puts Michigan all the way down to the Cap One Bowl...or at least having ND moved to Florida and Michigan in the Sugar. Ain't this fun?

COramprat · Dec 3, 2006

This from CFN:

Why Florida Should Play Ohio State

By Pete Fiutak
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Dec 2, 2006

Florida and Chris Leak beat Arkansas 38-28 to win the SEC Championship. According to the CFN Formula, which ranks the teams based on who had the best seasons, the Gators deserve to play for the national title. Not only isn't Michigan No. 2 in the CFN Formula, it's not third, or even fourth.

Who should play Ohio State for the national title? Michigan will most likely end up playing Ohio State in a rematch, but does it deserve it? According to the CFN Formula, which ranks teams based on what actually happened on the field and takes all subjectivity out of it, here are the rankings of four teams currently in the debate for the number two spot. This is NOT a ranking of which teams are the best or most talented. This is a formula to find out which teams had the best seasons based on who they played, who they beat, and who they lost to. We'll put out the entire 119-team ranking next week.

Out of Michigan, Florida, Louisville and Boise State ...

The Formula's Components:
1. Wins. - If you win, everything else falls into place. Each win counts as 1.
2. Quality Wins - The number of wins over teams that finished with a winning record. Each win counts as 1.
3. Elite Wins - The number of wins over teams that finished with two losses or fewer. Each win counts as 1 with a road win over an Elite team getting an extra 0.5. Also counting as 1 is a road win over a team that finished with three losses or fewer (but the extra 0.5 isn't added).
4. Bad Loss - The number of losses to teams that finished with three wins or fewer or a loss to a DI-AA team. Each loss counts as minus-1. Take away an additional 0.5 for a Bad Loss at home.
5. Bad Win - The number of wins to teams that finished with three wins or fewer, or a win over a D-IAA team. Each win counts as minus 0.25.
6. Elite Loss - The number of losses to teams that finished with two losses or fewer. Each loss counts as 0.25.
7. Point Differential - Points for minus points against divided by 100.
8. Winning Percentage - To take losses into account, winning percentage is in the mix.

1. Florida CFN Score: 24.92
Record: 12-1, Quality Wins: 7, Elite Wins 3, Bad Loss 0, Bad Win 1, Elite Loss 1, Point Difference 2, Winning % 0.92

2. Louisville CFN Score: 21.60
Record: 11-1, Quality Wins: 6, Elite Wins 1, Bad Loss 0, Bad Win 1, Elite Loss 1, Point Difference 2.68, Winning % 0.92

3. Boise State CFN Score: 21.11
Record: 12-0, Quality Wins: 5, Elite Wins 1, Bad Loss 0, Bad Win 3, Elite Loss 0, Point Difference 2.86, Winning % 1.00

4. Michigan CFN Score: 20.54
Record: 11-1, Quality Wins: 4, Elite Wins 2.5, Bad Loss 0, Bad Win 0, Elite Loss 1, Point Difference 1.87, Winning % 0.92

Case for Michigan
1. Michigan is generally acknowledged by almost everyone as the nation's second best team. Even when USC was ranked number two, that was more of a function of the voters preventing a rematch than it was a confirmation of the Trojans.
2. The first game in Columbus didn't settle the issue in the minds of many. If you're a believer that home field advantage means three points, then Michigan and Ohio State are dead even. Now, many want to see what would happen on a neutral field.
3. Going into this last weekend, Michigan played the nation's third toughest schedule behind Cincinnati and one other team which will go nameless for a moment.
4. It's not like Florida showed great pizzazz getting to 12-1. There's a reason no one's been pushing the Gators for the national title; it has been a bit zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz (Percy Harvin excluded). While style points shouldn't matter, Florida got sacked by Auburn in a 27-17 loss; the offense was shut down in the second half (but the defense was impressive). Michigan's one loss, of course, was as forgivable as it gets.
5. The offense should be every bit as good in a rematch with Ohio Stat, if not better. Mario Manningham was just getting back in the swing of things. One of the nation's best receivers, Michigan's offense is far more potent when he's 100% and rolling. Those 39 points and close to 400 yards of total offense weren't a fluke.

Case for Florida
1. Schedule, schedule, schedule. Going into the final weekend of the season, the Gators played the nation's toughest schedule, and it wasn't even close. The cumulative opposition winning percentage was 0.643. Number two Cincinnati was 0.622. That might not seem like much, but it is.
2. The SEC deserves a break. Auburn got hosed in 2003 when USC and Oklahoma squared off for the national title. If you believe the SEC is the nation's toughest conference, then its champion should go in.
3. Michigan didn't win it's own conference title. If you're the number two in your league, how is it possible, theoretically or practically, that you should be named the best team in the country?
4. Michigan beat an overrated Notre Dame team that had one win over a team with a pulse (Georgia Tech) and got by Wisconsin before the Badger offense, primarily the receivers, began to jell. Ohio State and Michigan basically fattened up their records against a horrible Big Ten while Florida ended up beating nine bowl teams and lost to one.
5. The defense is the real deal. The secondary might be a bit suspect, but the front seven, despite injuries, is rock-solid. Throw in a veteran quarterback like Chris Leak, and a head coach in Urban Meyer who doesn't lose when he gets more than two weeks to prepare, and you have a team more than good enough to not just challenge the Buckeyes, but beat them. Michigan had its chance, and lost.

Case for ... Boise State?!
1. 12-0. There are two teams in America without a loss. Boise State does play in Division-I, doesn't it? If there's no playoff and no chance to actually prove it on the field, you do have to consider all 119 teams for the title. It's time to pay more than lip-service when it comes to giving the "little guy" a shot.
2. Michigan already lost to Ohio State and no one outside of the Gainesville metropolitan area is jazzed up about a Gator-Buckeye championship. If you ever wanted to see a team like Boise State get a shot, this should be it.
3. The program deserves it. With 85 wins in eight years, it's not like this is some fluky, one-season wonder.
4. Fine, so the schedule is awful getting to fatten up on WAC teams, but Boise State obliterated Oregon State 42-14, beat a very good Hawaii team 41-34, crushed Utah 36-3, and stomped on Nevada 38-7.The Broncos have shown up in big occasions all year long and played their best football.
5. George Mason!
Click to expand...

The Story

islstl · Dec 3, 2006

In the scenario where Florida wins 3 of the 4 polls (with 2 being thrown out) we get:

Florida...... .950
Michigan... .930

That's .020 of the .032 margin they need to make up. I really do think they will make up the rest of that margin (.012) in the human polls. It's the equivalent of only 5 voters from each of the coaches and Harris polls (a total of 10 voters) to switch their positioning of Michigan and Florida.

TigerFan90 · Dec 3, 2006

islstl said: ↑

In the scenario where Florida wins 3 of the 4 polls (with 2 being thrown out) we get:

Florida...... .950
Michigan... .930

That's .020 of the .032 margin they need to make up. I really do think they will make up the rest of that margin (.012) in the human polls. It's the equivalent of only 5 voters from each of the coaches and Harris polls (a total of 10 voters) to switch their positioning of Michigan and Florida.
Click to expand...

So, you think Florida will overtake UM in the final poll now?

I was reading some posts on a UM board and a couple of compelling thoughts came to mind from what they said.

First, if USC won tonight's game and if UF won against Arky, would UF have jumped UM in th polls? And if not, why should they now just because USC lost?

islstl · Dec 3, 2006

TigerFan90 said: ↑

So, you think Florida will overtake UM in the final poll now?

I was reading some posts on a UM board and a couple of compelling thoughts came to mind from what they said.

First, if USC won tonight's game and if UF won against Arky, would UF have jumped UM in th polls? And if not, why should they now just because USC lost?
Click to expand...

Because Florida just won another really tough game against a top 10 opponent, on a neutral site, and won their conference (which Michigan did not). Florida could very well have jumped Michigan in the polls had USC won. We will never know obviously.

The other interesting thing to consider is the timing of the loss with USC today. The loss puts a void on everyone's card at #2 (well for those who have USC #2, which is most voters). They aren't "dropping" Michigan in this scenario, they would merely be placing Florida 2nd ahead of them. Not sure if that makes any sense, but it could have a psychological effect on the voters in how they think about their ballot. I think if Michigan would be #2 and Florida #3 going into this week with only the Florida game, then I wouldn't think Florida would have as much a chance.

COramprat · Dec 3, 2006

TigerFan90 said: ↑

So, you think Florida will overtake UM in the final poll now?

I was reading some posts on a UM board and a couple of compelling thoughts came to mind from what they said.

First, if USC won tonight's game and if UF won against Arky, would UF have jumped UM in th polls? And if not, why should they now just because USC lost?
Click to expand...

Good question...I believe Michigan and Florida may have stayed the 3 and 4...hmmmm

Log in or Sign up

What are the actual chances Florida goes to the NC?

COramprat Simma Da Na

COramprat Simma Da Na

islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

TigerFan90 Too far away from home

islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

COramprat Simma Da Na

Share This Page