What's the deal with the high expectations for Auburn?

I simply don't get it.

Auburn is a decent football team but in all fairness I truly don't think that many of these predictions I am hearing about regarding Auburn are realistic.

First, Auburn lost 5 starters off its' front 7 on Defense. This alone is bad enough but those defensive players were absolutely manhandled at times last season by USC, UGA, and LSU. Now Auburn must completely rebuild its' defense with players who weren't good enough to start last year.
It's one thing to have to replace a couple of players but 5 of the front 7 is
a major chore for any team. Now consider that LSU & UGA are both expected to have OL's which are at least as good as last season and I have to think that Auburn is going to have some serious matchup problems on their
defense.

Second, Auburn's offensive line could not consistantly run block against the better teams on their schedule last season and Auburn loses their best Tackle. Auburn had tremensous problems picking up the blitz last season and as a result Jason campbell is very likely to see more blitz packages than ever
this season.

Third, the running backs at Auburn are hyped to no end but if you research the actual production of Caddy and Ronnie Brown, it is obvious that they piled up yardage against the Western Ky's, ULM's, Miss. State's, and other assorted nobodies on their schedule last year. Against, USC,LSU, & UGA,
the Auburn running game was nonexistant. LSU held Caddy to 50 yards rushing & UGA held him to under 30 yards. Some of this relates to the problems on the Auburn OL but the fact is that Auburn's running backs were simply shut down by the better teams Auburn played last season and I have seen nothing to indicate that a great transformation has occurred at Auburn which will change the average at best running attack from last season.

Fourth, Tubberville just hired his 3rd Offensive Coordinator in the last 3 years. This is going to be the 3rd offensive system that the Auburn offensive players have had to learn in 3 years which is going to be a confusing situation for Auburn's players at best. Oh, by the way, who did
Tubby go out and hire as his OC after his "national search"? None other
than the OC from that known offensive powerhouse at Indiana which is coached by none other than one Gerry Dinardo.

Fifth, Jason Campbell returns as the Auburn QB. Campbell is an average QB
and is learning his 3rd offensive system in 3 years going into his Senior season at Auburn. Campbell just never has shown that he can carry his team and usually becomes more & more eratic as the game wears on, especially if he has been hit a few times. Look for Campbell to be pressured into more poor decisions. There has been nothing I have seen from Campbell to indicate that anything else should be expected.

Sixth, the turmoil from last season when Tubby nearly got run off has calmed down for now but only after Auburn fired their President and Athletic Director. If Auburn loses a couple of games early, you can bet that the pressure will be on again. Tubby is on the hot seat even though he was given a cosmetic job extension after the botched firing by the Auburn administration last year.

Considering all these things, I simply do not understand the predictions by some who think Auburn is some powerhouse. there is nothing there to indicate that Auburn is anything more than an average SEC team which is still in a little turmoil.

I certainly don't believe that if LSU was in a situation simlar to Auburn's that they would be a media darling of any sort. What amazes me is how these predictions of Auburn success this season simply overlook major weaknesses
and concerns at Auburn. It is amazing.

 

Good post, you brought up some very good points.

 

The real question is "Who freakin cares about da Barns expectations" :lol:

 

STRIPES....what, or whose, high expectations are you referring too. The only poll I've seen had us 18th and I don't know any Auburn people with any unreal expectations. I wouldn't argue much with your analysis. On a poll on my Auburn board the consensus was an 8-3 season with 9-2 being good. I think that's about reality. If you are referring to the College Football News prediction, remember it was them who picked Aubur #1 last year. :wink:

 

Stripes is right. It don't take much to get em jacked up over there. Last year when they stomped Western Kentucky, they were all over this board talkin chit, :grin: and they were 2 and 2 at that point, with wins over WK & Vandy. Then when they beat the hell out of ULM :lol: , they went nuts over here talking all kinds of BCS & were goin to Atlanta and the Caddys gonna run over you...etc...etc...etc... It was'nt till Eli brought em back down that they kinda simmered down and slowly quit talking trash. Pretty simple folks on the plains.

 

Stripes, those are all legitimate points that temper the expectations of even the most optimistic of Auburn fans. (Though I would argue that your third and fifth points are less valid due to your second point, which has been the true problem with the AU offense the past two-and-a-half seasons. )

As good as the new offensive scheme might be for AU down the road, I concur that the lack of continuity in systems creates a significant hurdle for the team. I wouldn't worry too much if I were an LSU fan....... :grin:

 

Proud (Auburn) Tiger, the predictions I am talking about.....

Are the ones we continue hearing about Auburn being picked to beat LSU
this season. There are references on this board to predictions such as AU-17 LSU-14 by various sports writers, websites, etc.

My point is exactly what are these guys basing those predictions on?

I think I pretty well spelled out why I think Auburn may have some trouble this season with LSU and UGA. In addition, I think Ole Miss is going to give Auburn fits. I truthfully don't see how Auburn can finish any higher tha 3rd in the SEC West with all of the new key players and existing weaknesses which were obviously exposed last season by LSU, UGA, & USC. Even a mediocre
Ga. Tech team exploited the Auburn problems last season.

I don't think Auburn is a bad team I just think that there are some obvious major weaknesses that some people either intentionally overlook or just don't know about.

 

Good questions. Last year we had a joke of an OC.

We also weren't able to utilize our defense aggresively due to inexperience in the secondary.

Here is what I think will be the major changes we will see and profit from this season. ( taken from a post I wrote yesterday on the AU board. )

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........ Do you remember last year when we were talking about how we would utilize all four of our backs?

Some of us even thought we might look like a wishbone O for a lot of our plays. To be honest, I never could picture how we could successfully have three backs in the back-field and overpower defenses.

I thought that we would have a good running game, I just couldn't picture utilizing all of our backs successfully. Turns out neither could Nall.
.........

This year is different.... I know we have weapons, and I have a feel for how we want to get the ball to them. The gulf-coast O under Borges will emphasize quick passes and multiple formations to get the ball to the play-makers. Maybe it is unwarranted at this time, but I have confidence in JC and the WRs. I don't want to place too much emphasis on the A-Day game, but there was a definite difference in the play of both.

We have playmakers at WR, Ben O ( too bad he will forever be remembered for his drop against Ole Miss, but the boys got skill with a ball after he catches it ) I look forward to seeing him on quick slants, possible screens and reverses.

Borges said that Taylor is a sleeper, and will turn a lot of heads this year.

Mix, with his size, look for him to be a prime target in this gulf coast offense where passes over the middle are a crucial ingredient.

I don't know if Tre will play or not this year, but the kid is good. If we can put him in situations were he can do more than just run up the middle he could make some noise.

I'll be honest and say that I think we are lacking in the TE department. I would be surprised if we get consistant performance from the group. Hope I'm wrong.

Our backfield is dangerous. Borges will find a way to do more than run off tackle and outside with this group.

The thing about offenses is you have to have a few legitimate threats to take it to the house on any given play. I think we have at least 4 ( at least 7 who are dangerous.)

You also have to have a QB who can get the ball to those players. I will let history guide my faith in this department. 5th year seniors seem to perform. That's all I'll say about that.

You have to have a line which can both protect and man-handle. I think our talent along with our scheme we will be adequate in this department.

Last but not least is coaching. My biggest fear isn't game calling, but perhaps our O not digesting enough of the play-book to be fluid...... which is a must in this offense.

Are we a great offensive team. No, but there is no doubt in my mind that we can match up with everyone we play against.
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Defense will look almost as different as the O. We are counting on having lock-down corners this season. I'll take coach Chizicks word on this for now.

That will enable us to free up at least one extra blitzer/pass-run defender, depending on the O play of course.

This freedom to either roam, blitz, clog the line, and ( and this is important ) disguise defenses, will result in a much more chaotic defense resulting in more turnovers and QB pressures/sacks.

We will be softer up the middle, but I don't think we can be exploited. We will be tough enough to keep teams from moving the chains just running on us, therefore our defensive scheme will hold true.
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I don't think I am too ambitious in my view of this years team..... it is the plan and they are working hard to implement it.

Don't get me wrong, their are teams we will be the underdog to and rightly so, LSU and UGA. They have proven it on the field and have the consistancy in quality coaching which leads to success.

I will not concede defeat though. We have a damn fine team, and I believe a different attitude now that the hex of Nall ball has been lifted.
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Hope that cleared up a little about our team. Bottom line is we will be a different team on both sides of the ball against you..... for the better.

I expect an Auburn victory. I'm not being cocky. I know you have a very talented team. I just think that we have enough experience and talent ( compiled with the home-field ) to win.


See ya there.

BT:OB+

 

Some people pick them to win the west because of a favorable schedule.. they have their 2 toughest games at home.. only road challenges are tenn. and of course, the iron bowl.