Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Trump to win the White House

Discussion in 'Free Speech Alley' started by Tiger in NC, Mar 18, 2016.

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  1. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    then find some numbers son and get to arguing....
     
  2. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    Quite the contrary sir, I have just shown you why I am quite confident.
     
  3. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    what is your rationale? that more white people are showng up at Trump rallies? you think that all of the inflammatory speech that keeps turning out white people isn't going to turn out hispanics and blacks too? that's a pipe dream
    I'll grant you the 66.67% for white voters, but 45% of black voters is ridiculous since the lowest percentage of black voters in the past four elections has been 57% with highs of 65 and 66%, so your numbers are seriously flawed there. The % of black voters voting will be more like 60-62%. I can agree with your 50% for latinos even though I think it will be much higher this time given their disdain for Trump. But again, 40% of asians is a dream since their lowest number in the past four elections is 44% with a high of 51%.

    I'll go along with your number of 59% for white voters and 5% for black voters but 33% for latinos is about the most profoundly ridiculous thing I've witnessed in some time. He'll be lucky if he gets 25% but it will probably be closer to 20%....for the sake of being fair I'll give him 25% and I'll go along with your 35% of asians. Given all of this information the election would be 53-47 and a 332-206 electoral college landslide.

    You can put any number you want into that little device but the only numbers that count are on election day and in order for Trump to win he would need hispanics and blacks to stay home in record numbers....like they've never done before. I am going to have so much fun watching this unfold.....
     
  4. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Well I put a ridiculously low 5 % of the black vote for Trump, when in fact Quinnipiac shows it's 12 % in a recent poll.
     
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  5. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Here is a better representation of what may happen:

    Whites 70 % Turnout, 60 % Trump
    Blacks 60 % Turnout, 12 % Trump
    Hispanics 55 % Turnout, 33 % Trump
    Other 50 % Turnout, 33 % Trump

    That gets it to a virtual tie in the popular vote as well as the electoral college.
     
  6. LSUpride123

    LSUpride123 PureBlood

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    Like I said, you are not an expert on this. Go to bed.
     
  7. lsu-i-like

    lsu-i-like Playoff advocate

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    This makes my skin crawl. So you're what a Hitlery Clitler fan looks like.
     
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  8. Winston1

    Winston1 Founding Member

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    I'm sure you're posting this to get a reaction. Your numbers are meaningless NC. They assume a creditable democrat opponent. If HRC is indicted and has to drop out (even if she doesn't drop out), then the democrat party is in chaos and your numbers are meaningless.
    Otherwise I'm afraid your trends are accurate. It is too bad the extreme right is so crazy and the moderates are weak as I do believe there is a natural conservatism in both African American and Latino society that would gravitate to the Rs if the door was opened. It's had to align yourself with a group that appears to hate you. Look at the tough row the Log Cabin Republicans have.
    In this crazy year Trump does have a chance. Look at how many Bernie voters' second choice is Trump. HRC is so bad a person and candidate that this is the only environment she could possibly win in.
     
  9. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    So, don't take it from me then......here is virtually the same demographics and story presented by your friends at FOX news.
     
  10. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    you are dreaming if you think that a third of hispanics will vote for him, plain and simple. whites turning out at 70% is also highly unlikely since Romney had the highest turnout among white voters since Reagan and still lost by 4-5 points. you are using wishful math and it will only work that way until election day so enjoy it while you can.
     
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