Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Trump to win the White House

Discussion in 'Free Speech Alley' started by Tiger in NC, Mar 18, 2016.

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  1. Bengal B

    Bengal B Founding Member

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    Isn't a statement like that a bit politically incorrect for you libs?
     
  2. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    Naw....I'm from Denham Springs, LA and she is from Justin, TX.....so....."the wife" is alright with her. She calls me "the husband" plenty....
     
  3. Bengal B

    Bengal B Founding Member

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    She is entitled to call you anything she wants. You, on the other hand are in deep doo doo if you even inadvertantly say the wrong thing. You won't know what it is you said that pissed her off and she won't tell you but once again you will be wrong. Did you say she is from Justin, TX or did you mistype Austin?
     
  4. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    Ha....so damn true. Yes, she is from Justin, TX, where they make Justin boots and just up the road from Texas motor speedway. I married a good country girl....
     
  5. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    The trending in the rust belt is in Trump's favor. That 7 % margin you speak of was much greater just a few months ago. You need to learn perspective, not simply an absolute snapshot in time.
     
  6. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Speaking of, Trump and Sanders may very well debate just before the Cali primaries.

    It would be epic, Trump is calling for $10 million to be donated to women's health issues (charities). Of course, he hates women so who knows why he suggested that.

    Sanders has accepted the debate. The $10 million donation is the part that would have to be worked out (Trump's spokeswoman said it would come from the network that airs the debate).

    If that does take place, Hillary is looking like a total loser and outsider and I bet anything it propels Sanders to a 5-10 point win in California, closes the gap to about 200 delegates and makes the 700 or so super delegates take pause as to who really should get their vote. It could be the game changer Sanders has been hoping for (his first game changer is still in play with Hillary in an orange jumpsuit).
     
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  7. LSUTiga

    LSUTiga TF Pubic Relations

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    Sure would. Course it's what she is, really.
     
  8. KyleK

    KyleK Who, me? Staff Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    says who? these polls were taken in the past week right in the midst of Trump's big push after securing the nomination, shouldn't he be a lot closer to her than that? And it's 11 in Wisconsin and Michigan, 7 in Pennsylvania and 4 in Ohio. I do not lack perspective, you lack facts.
     
  10. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Time to school this flaming liberal:

    Here are the facts from the 2012 Presidential election by 5 key voting blocks:

    Educated White
    77 % voted, 56 % Republican

    Non-Educated White
    57 % voted, 62 % Republican

    Black
    66 % voted, 93 % Democrat

    Latino
    48 % voted, 71 % Democrat

    Asian/Other
    49 % voted, 67 % Democrat

    Using the swing state calculator from fivethirtyeight.com website which recalulates each state based on the turnout and voting outcome from each of the 5 groups above, we see how very easy it will be to turn blue states red.

    Using some common sense about what we've learned so far in these primaries, it's safe to say the Latino voter turnout will be higher. How much higher is unknown as Latino's typically turn out the least in general elections. So we'll be a bit conservative with the kind of bump the Dems could get from the Latino vote in 2016. Also, we know that the passion of the Black vote won't be as intense as it was for Barack Obama in 2012. So we'll temper the drastic results which will give a bump to Trump.

    Asian/Other category is largely unknown so that group will be left in tact.

    In the same vein, Trump has not moved the educated white towards his side in nearly the same fashion as he has the non-educated. So we'll leave the white educated exactly the same. The non-educated white is the key to the election for Trump. How many more can he get to turnout than did in 2012 and can he get a slightly higher percentage to vote Republican?

    Educated White
    77 % voted, 56 % Republican

    Non-Educated White
    61 % voted, 68 % Republican

    Black
    62 % voted, 90 % Democrat

    Latino
    58 % voted, 77 % Democrat

    Asian/Other
    49 % voted, 67 % Democrat

    So simply upping the voter turnout of non-educated white from 57 to 61 percent and the Republican weighted vote from 62 % to 68 %, Trump wins the election 273-265 but lose the popular vote 49.4 to 48.9. I gave the Dems an even bigger bump with the Latino vote, going from 48 % to 58 % turnout and Dem weighted vote from 71 % to 77 %. And I very slightly tempered the black vote, giving Dems a whopping 90 % and 62 % turnout (down from 66 % for Obama).

    But yeah I lack clarity, focus, facts, etc.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2016
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