trump's path to 270 two likeliest scearios 1. holds off clinton in nevada, arizona and georgia 2. wins both florida and ohio 3a. wins north carolina and virginia OR 3b. wins pennsylvania and iowa
and before nut job liberal (not gdf, the other nut job liberal), steps in, here is the latest quinnipiac polling florida trump 47 clinton 47 ohio trump 47 clinton 46 north carolina clinton 47 trump 43 pennsylvania clinton 48 trump 43 north carolina and pennsylvania is barely outside the margins of error
yes and the one right before that showed her up by 16 (Roanoke) and the one right after the Emerson poll showed her up by 7(Washington Post).
First, thank you for actually presenting a few scenarios. Now let's examine them and what will be required for that to happen: Trump has to flip Nevada as Obama won it in 12 while holding Clinton off in AZ and GA. Clinton currently leads Trump in NV by an average of 3 points. I would be surprised if she flips Georgia even though they are tied there. Arizona is going to be more problematic for Trump because of the latino population makes up 30% of the electorate. Next, in addition to the scenario above Trump would need to win both OH and FL. The candidates are running neck and neck in both of these states. Trump has a better chance of picking off OH but FL will be stubborn for Trump because there is a large latino population there as well. Nevertheless, if he can pick of NV, OH and FL the total gets to Clinton 279 and Trump 259. Romney won NC in 2012 so Trump is playing defense there. The candidates are running neck and neck in NC with Clinton owning a slight lead that is well within the margin of error. Living here I would give the nod to Clinton based upon changing demographics in the state and a very, very unpopular Republican governor who is running about 7 points behind the democratic challenger, Cooper. Having said that, flipping Virginia or Pennsylvania would indeed hand the election to Trump, given that he flips NV, holds onto AZ and GA, flips OH and FL, holds NC and flips either VA or PA. There are a lot of roadblocks to threading that needle, most especially in PA and VA. Every election cycle we here Republicans fawn over winning Pennsylvania but it is reliably blue and will continue to be that way. Clinton's average lead there has never dipped below 5 points at any point of the race. The same is true for Virginia where her lead is actually a little higher than in PA. Here are two things to consider moving forward: 1) Trump still has to debate her 3 times and let's face it, when he doesn't have a teleprompter in front of him he tends to say stupid things, especially if she can get under his skin. 2) Clinton's ground game is light years ahead of Trumps. Organizing your voters and getting them to the polls is what a ground game is all about. Clinton currently has about 5 field offices to every 1 Trump field office in the battleground states. Again, I appreciate the effort even if I disagree with the results. My point all along is that Clinton has countless paths to the Presidency, Trump has very few and just about everything would have to go his way. I still do not see it happening.
