Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Trump to win the White House

Discussion in 'Free Speech Alley' started by Tiger in NC, Mar 18, 2016.

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  1. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Marist poll shows Hillary up 7, but that same poll showed her up 15 just a month ago.

    Trending heavily in trumps favor.

    After the debate Monday night, the electoral map will officially be tilted in trumps direction.
     
    islstl, Sep 23, 2016
    #971
  2. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    current trending of polls now show the following electoral map results

    Clinton 214
    Trump 186

    Swing 140

    Trending now shows Trump getting Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada and Ohio, giving him 265.

    New Hampshire puts him at 269, giving him the Presidency in the case of a tie. This is his most likely path.

    The other states still up for grabs are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Colorado.

    And if you only look at rcp averages for each state (4 way race polling), Tiger in NC's go to card, yields:
    Clinton 273
    Trump 265

    With Trump within the margin of error in Colorado (2.5). And with people like Lasalle saying fuck it, we are hoping enough of these marijuana smokers exist to give him Colorado. My guess is they will be too high and lethargic to get out to the voting booths.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    That shows 272 to 266, with Trump getting one of the delegates in Maine.

    MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE.

    Ten days after the first debate, Trump will be in statistical dead heats in the entire rust belt and a considerable lead in Ohio. Virginia and New Hampshire will also be too close to call.
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2016
    islstl, Sep 24, 2016
    #972
  3. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    On August 17, RCP has this electoral map with toss ups:

    Ĉlinton 272
    Trump 154

    Today

    Clinton 200
    Trump 164

    Kellyanne Conway took over as campaign manager in early to mid August. That is no coincidence. The woman is a genius campaign manager.
     
    islstl, Sep 24, 2016
    #973
  4. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    Well, here we are almost 10 days later and where is this tidal wave you were predicting that would propel Trump to 337 electoral votes? And just for the record she is leading in Oregon by 16, Minnesota by 9, New Mexico by 14, Connecticut by 14, Maine by 9 (not the 2nd district which Trump has a good chance of winning) and New Jersey where she is leading by 16. So, maybe your next prediction will work out a little better.
     
    Tiger in NC, Sep 24, 2016
    #974
  5. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    Wrong. Here is polling from the past week in each of these states:
    FL (9-19) Sienna College, Clinton +1; (9-20) St. Leo's University, Clinton +5; (9-20) Monmouth, Clinton +5; (9-22) Suffolk Univeristy, Trump +1. This averages for Clinton +2.5.
    NC (9-20) Elon University, Trump +1; (9-21) PPP, Tied; (9-21) FOX, Trump +5; (9-22) Sienna College, Clinton +2; (9-23) GQR Research, Clinton +3. This averages for Trump +0.2
    OH (9-21) FOX, Trump +5; (9-23) GQR Research, Trump +2. This averages for Trump +3.5
    NV (9-20) Rasmussen, Trump +3; (9-21) FOX, Trump +4; (9-23) GQR Research, Clinton +3. This averages for Trump +1.3
    There is no polling from Arizona this week but the most recent polling shows Trump holding onto about a 2 point lead.

    NH (9-21) Monmouth University, Clinton +9

    WI (9-21) Marquette University, Clinton +3; (9-22) Emerson College, Clinton +7. This averages for Clinton +5
    PA (9-17) Morning Caller, Clinton +9; (9-23) GQR Research +9. This averages for Clinton +9
    CO (9-21) CMU, Clinton +7; (9-22) Quinnipiac, Clinton +2. This averages for Clinton +4.5
    There is no polling from Michigan this week but the most recent polling shows Clinton holding around a 5 point lead.

    You mean kind of like when you predicted ten days ago that he would be leading in Oregon, New Jersey, etc? I just love it that you guys think he is going to win the debate. I have to give it to Conway, his campaign manager, because she has put him on a teleprompter so he'd quit saying stupid shit. But for 90 minutes he has to go toe to toe with Hillary without someone else telling him what to say. Without any breaks. She will destroy him and I will enjoy watching it.

    Lastly, you like to quote National Polls so much, here is where they have been this past week:
    9-20, St. Leo's University, Clinton +5
    9-21, Pew Research, Clinton +7
    9-21, NBC, Clinton +6
    9-22, Rasmussen, Trump +5
    9-23, McClatchy, Clinton +6
    9-23, Associated Press, Clinton +6

    But Trump has all the momentum right?
     
    Tiger in NC, Sep 24, 2016
    #975
  6. LSUpride123

    LSUpride123 PureBlood

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    For no mathematical chance, you sure defend HRC alot.
     
    LSUpride123, Sep 24, 2016
    #976
  7. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    I find it laughable that he doesn't know the meaning of trending.
     
    islstl, Sep 24, 2016
    #977
  8. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    On the eve of the debate, Trump ahead in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Ohio, within 2 points in Pennsylvania, 3 points in both Michigan and Wisconsin. Add in North Carolina and Trump for the very first time is above the 270 threshold at 274 (and that is with giving Hillary PA, WI and MI.

    337 electoral votes are clearly within reach now, a landslide.
     
    islstl, Sep 26, 2016
    #978
  9. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    For the very first time, real clear politics, the source Tiger in NC quotes and relies on the most, has put both Colorado and Virginia as well as the entire 4 state rust belt in the toss up column, lowering the solid and lean democrat column to a new low for Clinton at only 198. Trump is at 165, but in reality is at 181 with Georgia in his hip pocket (black folk are not coming out to vote for her). Trump is up 4.5 points in Georgia using the RCP average. He will win that state by nearly double digits. Those white folk are energized and every single one of them is going to get to the polls on that first Tuesday in November.

    Even Maine is in the toss up column, for Gods sake. And that is technically part of liberal fascist Canada.
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2016
    islstl, Sep 26, 2016
    #979
  10. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Continuing on, in New Jersey of all places, Clinto showed a whopping 21 point lead in June. In early September, it was only 4.

    The latest poll in Illinois, a 6 point lead, just outside the margin of error. Egad. Exact same thing in Minnesota.

    Hillary Clinton now only has an insurmountable lead in 9 states (CA, NY, WA, VT, MD, MA, RI, DE, HI). Trump 16 states.
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2016
    islstl, Sep 26, 2016
    #980
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