its ok to have original opinions. you and isl have cornered the market on parroting every sports overreaction the day before.
wtf are you talking about? wait, so you mean to tell me that islstl and myself only put what we read elsewhere and try to pass them off as our ideas? I said that Andy Reid made a dumb decision. I haven't heard anyone else say that? Maybe they have but i haven't watched ESPN since early saturday morning. And yes it was a dumb move. If there are 4 minutes left and you have no time outs you don't kick a field goal on 4th and 8 down 7, especially from 50 plus. I am not over reacting, it was stupid.
This situation doesn't irk me as much as coaches who are on the 35 yard line down 9 with 15 seconds left and they are going for it, on any down. The correct play is a field goal, even on first down. Because the reality is, you will have to kick an onside kick anyway, and you will have to recover it, and you will have to score on the very next play which will have to be a hail mary because you are so far back. Never once have i seen this executed properly. As far as this particular play, I agreed with going for it. You make it and now a field goal ties the game and there is 20+ seconds left. onside kick, two shots at gaining twenty yards and a field goal ties.
Or you could go for the TD, not make it, and not have ANY chance to win the game. Oh, right, that's what happened. How'd that decision work our for them? Would they have hit the 20 yard field goal? Extremely likely, probably better than a 95% chance if the kicker's averages at that distance hold true. I wonder what the percentage of conversion on 4th and 3 is? Without a doubt lot lower to be certain. Would they have recovered the onside kick? Not likely, the NFL average is about 10% or so (I think). But if they had then they have a chance to try to win the game. Go for the TD first, get stopped, game over with time left. I'd go with the percentage play and try to have my team in a position to score until the clock reads :00 rather than be stopped with time on the clock when I could have easily scored and at least had the chance to score again, no matter how unlikely. I still have to score twice no matter what. I may not get the last score, but I won't leave the first score on the table by gambling when I have an almost sure thing. Do you guys take even money on a blackjack or play the hand and try to win 3 to 2??
Kick a FG and then try for the TD FG = 98 percent On side kick = 10 percent 2 hail marys = 3 percent = 6 percent (either hail mary to be successful) .98 x .10 x .06 = .006 (6/1000th of a chance) Get the TD then try for the FG 4th and 3 = 20 percent On side kick = 10 percent Passing enough to get in FG range (roughly 25 yards) = 20 percent Long FG (50 yards) = 45 percent (although Kasay never seems to miss vs the Saints) .20 x .10 x .20 x .45 = .018 (18/1000th chance) So about 3 times more likely to tie the game if you go for it on 4th down.
