Your official "How Does LSU make its way into the BCS Title Game?" Thread

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by islstl, Nov 9, 2010.

  1. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Current BCS Standings:
    1) .9638 Auburn
    2) .9611 Oregon
    3) .9259 TCU
    4) .8662 Boise State
    5) .8170 LSU

    Remaining Schedules:
    1) Auburn - 11/13 Georgia, 11/26 @Alabama
    2) Oregon - 11/13 @ Cal, 11/26 Arizona, 12/4 @ Oregon State
    3) TCU - 11/13 San Diego State, 11/27 @ New Mexico
    4) Boise State - 11/12 @ Idaho, 11/19 Fresno State, 11/26 @ Nevada, 12/4 Utah State
    5) LSU - 11/13 ULM, 11/20 Ole Miss, 11/27 @Arkansas

    Current Computer Poll Rankings
    .....................JS....AH.....BL...CL....PW.....KM
    Auburn............1.......1......2.....1......1.......1........1.000
    TCU................3.......2......1.....2......3.......2........0.950
    Oregon............2.......4......5.....4......2.......3........0.910
    LSU.................6......3......4.....3.......4.......4........0.890
    Boise State.....10......5......3.....5.......7.......8........0.790

    The most likely scenario that could play out in which LSU ends up in the national title game is as follows:
    1) TCU wins out and just hopes either Oregon or Auburn loses, they would be in the title game without a doubt
    2) Oregon loses one of it's remaining 3 games (all 3 teams have a legit chance at the upset, so losing one is actually not far fetched)
    3) Auburn loses one of it's two remaining games or the SEC CG (again, all 3 teams would have a legit shot at winning, again not far fetched)
    4) Boise State either loses to Nevada OR LSU jumps Boise State in the BCS rankings
    5) LSU wins out, preferably wins the West and wins the SEC CG (although not required)

    I believe the first 3 things are going to occur. It's the 4th piece to the puzzle that gets sketchy (as well as LSU winning out, which is far from certain).

    Some simple math:
    If you just apply Boise State being placed 4th in the human polls and LSU being 5th in the human polls by every single voter, this yields:

    ...................Coaches........Harris......Computer.......BCS
    LSU............... .840............ .840.......... .890........ .857
    Boise State..... .880............ .880.......... .790........ .850

    So in other words, given the current computer poll rankings, if LSU were just 1 spot behind Boise State on average for every voter (it's a hypothetical obviously), LSU would be ranked higher than Boise State in the BCS. LSU does not have to pass Boise State or necessarily even get close to Boise's point total in the 2 human polls. A 364 point differential in the Harris needs to narrow to just 114. A 177 point deficit in the Coaches needs to narrow to just 59. LSU roughly needs to eliminate 2/3 of the deficit in both human polls as it currently stands. Obviously it's all a moot point if Nevada pulls the upset and LSU wins out.

    LSU's absolute best scenario, given that Boise State does run the table, is for Auburn to lose it's last 2 games, LSU goes to the SEC CG and wins. Then the voters have the tough decision of whether a 1 loss SEC Champ deserves to be in the BCS title game over an undefeated Boise State. LSU computer poll rankings would also be enhanced and may end up making the difference necessary for LSU to overtake Boise State in the final BCS poll. My bet at that point is LSU. Some style points would come into play in this scenario.

    As great as the LSU win was on Saturday, the chance LSU had late in the 4th when Alabama was desperate down 24-14, to maybe get a turnover or defensive stop and win 24-14, 27-14, 31-14 would have gone a long long way in getting LSU to a solid #5 in the human polls this past Sunday.

    Games of utmost importance to buoy LSU's human poll rankings:
    1) Wisconsin to lose at Michigan 11/20
    2) Ohio State to lose @ Iowa 11/20 or vs Michigan 11/27
    3) Stanford to lose @ Cal 11/20 or vs Oregon State 11/27
    4) Nebraska at Texas A&M 11/20

    Wisconsin, Ohio State, Stanford and Nebraska are all stealing valuable points from LSU in the human polls (in that order, Wisconsin causing the most damage, Nebraska causing us the least). Given losses by the first 3 of these teams, LSU closes the gap on Boise State by nearly 1/2 (remember we need to reduce the gap by 2/3 ultimately).

    Games of importance to help LSU and hurt Boise State in the computer polls (as well as human voter effect):
    1) Arkansas to win the next two and be ranked in the top 10
    2) Florida to win out and be ranked in the top 15 (hopefully we play them in the SEC CG, but minimally our win over them looks better)
    3) Alabama to win out and be ranked in the top 10
    4) Nevada to lose @ Fresno State 11/13 - THIS ONE IS HUGE
    5) Virginia Tech to lose @ North Carolina 11/13 and @ Miami 11/20
    6) Oregon State to lose to USC 11/20
    7) West Virginia running the table and get back in the top 25 and be the BCS representative from the Big East

    Virginia Tech losing to North Carolina would be of tremendous help for LSU and hurt Boise State considerably. Getting Virginia Tech out of the top 25 and North Carolina into the top 25 instead would go a long way in the computer poll results favoring LSU over Boise State. Nevada losing this week knocks them completely out of the top 25 and a Boise State win is greatly diminished. Oregon State getting a 5th loss would help diminish the affects of possible wins over Stanford and/or Oregon and keep them out of the top 25.

    There are still other issues to contend with even if both Oregon and Auburn lose a game. When do they lose a game? If Auburn loses to Georgia and beats Alabama and then wins the SEC CG, do they jump past us? Proabably. If Cal beats Oregon and then Oregon dominates both a ranked Arizona State and then arch rival Oregon State on a weekend in which LSU isn't even playing, do they jump past us? Probably. The most likely scenario for a non SEC Champ LSU to prevail would be for Oregon to lose it's last game vs Oregon State (again, LSU would be idle and pollsters would have a difficult time sending a team that lost it's last game to the BCS title game) and Auburn losing one of it's last two and then lose the SEC CG.

    Ultimately the very best scenario would be for Auburn to lose it's last 2 games, LSU become the SEC Champs and Oregon lose ANY of it's last 3 games. A 1 loss SEC Champ will trump a 1 loss PAC-10 team. LSU would be playing their SEC CG the same weekend Oregon would play Oregon State in that scenario. Again, I think LSU as SEC Champs jump Boise State in the final week of the BCS polls.
     
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  2. LaSalleAve

    LaSalleAve when in doubt, mumble

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    wow, great stuff man. thanks!!!
     
  3. Bayou Bengal11

    Bayou Bengal11 ~Orlando Tiger Coonass~

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    This is a longer shot than 2007...Im hoping for a Sugar Bowl.

    If not....back to Orlando :grin:
     
  4. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Actually not.

    We were down to hoping a 21 point underdog Pittsburgh team with Wannstache at the helm would somehow beat the vaunted West Virginia Mountaineers. And of course OU beating Mizzou (I expected that to happen), and then hope we jump from 7 to 2 in the human and BCS polls.

    Luckily we had Herbstreit of all people on national TV during the OU/Mizzou game trumpeting LSU as the best team given the "body of work" to be the other team to face his Buckeyes.
     
  5. Rwilliams

    Rwilliams Veteran Member

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    Would love to see it but the media has been down on us all year. We all know money makes things happen and les miles makes good tv. The media would pump the hat and miles 4th qtr thrill ride reputation would be something that they could pump for ratings. We go to sec title game and win were in. Au wins sec title and were going to sugar or at worst orange bowl. Hell either one is better than we thought. I was thinking chicken bowl again after the tenn near miss. Sugar would still be sweet and noone should bitch about that if we make it there. I will be wearing red and cheering for the dawgs. That's our way to California. Don't see us going without winning sec title. If things worked out you can bet the network would like the hat in California for the ratings. Wouldn't it be extra sweet to play for nc in usc's house!
     
  6. LaSalleAve

    LaSalleAve when in doubt, mumble

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    If you think about it guys. Lets say that Auburn loses to Alabama and then loses the SECCG. Oregon and LSU wins out. The SEC East team would be invited to the Sugar Bowl, and the Rose Bowl would get the first selection because their Pac-10 champ would be playing in Glendale. LSU could be invited to the Rose Bowl. There was a lot of hype a few years ago about LSU going to the Rose Bowl and I wouldn't put it past the committee to select LSU. Going to be an interesting rest of November.
     
  7. Swerved

    Swerved It appears my hypocrisy knows no bounds.

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    First... I try not to look that far ahead. But it's tempting so here's my take:


    Honestly, I don't want us in the BCSNCG if we don't win our conference. Don't get me wrong, I don't want to take anything away from the team, those guys have played their hearts out. But I was against Oklahoma making it to the game in '03, and I feel like it would be hypocritical of me to defend LSU getting in while not being a conference champ.

    So, with that said.. I want Auburn to drop 2, and us to win out and go beat the snot out of someone from the East in Atlanta.
     
  8. Bayou Bengal11

    Bayou Bengal11 ~Orlando Tiger Coonass~

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    Current BCS Standings:
    1) .9638 Auburn
    2) .9611 Oregon
    3) .9259 TCU
    4) .8662 Boise State
    5) .8170 LSU

    that gap between #5 and #3 is what makes me nervous. No doubt we could catch Boise St...not really worried about that . But, even if AU loses to Bama...I still dont see us jumping them. In other words....TCU and Oregon HAVE to both lose. An Oregon loss doesnt even guarantee we jump them. Its in the voters hands at that point which I believe are low on LSU. The biggest thing LSU has going for them are the computers.
     
  9. LaSalleAve

    LaSalleAve when in doubt, mumble

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    Here is the difference though. Oklahoma lost their conference championship. LSU wouldn't have gotten a chance to play in it. But i am with you, as long as we are going by the BCS and not a playoff scenario, a team that isn't conference champ shouldn't be a national champ. Now in a playoff scenario anything goes, just like the NFL.
     
  10. Rwilliams

    Rwilliams Veteran Member

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    My bad. I thought nc was at rose bowl for some reason. But rose would be great. Got mixed up. Arizona this year right.
     

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