You just about covered everything, even the UNC/VT element which I have been focusing on. I would add if WVU jumps back into the top 25 that would help as well. If the Tigers have 7 teams in the final ranking, having gone 6-1 against them, our quality win component would be through the roof. Eliminating the perspective from the UT game as just a mishap, because the Tigers would have taken care of 1/3 of the top 25, and done it in quality fashion. I think if some of the loses that you point out happen, and we have this element to our equation, the computers and the voters may look at us more favorably. I am not sure but I don't think any of the remaining teams, with the exception of AU, have that many games against the top 25 in their schedules. A loss by AU anywhere down the road, all of our top 25 opponents being ranked in the final polls, Boise and TCU taking quality win component hits, and I think we end up in the MNC. A long shot, but hey each of our previous 2 appearances took magic to make come true, so it isn't that farfetched. All of the sudden we are fans of some teams that I never thought we would be; UNC, VT, Bama, UGA, UF or USCe, and a couple more. GEAUX (fill in the blank for the next couple of weeks).
Stanford is almost a shoe in for Pasadena, unless they end up with 3 losses. Heck even a 2 loss Arizona would get in. That's how much the PAC-10 has a hard on for selecting PAC-10 vs Big 10. BCS Title game: Oregon vs TCU (Hypothetical and most likely scenario) Rose: Stanford (even with 2 losses) vs Ohio State/Wisconsin/Michigan State Sugar: Auburn vs Big East Champ (Yuk!) Orange: LSU vs the ACC Champ. Fiesta: Boise State vs Big 12 Champ The Big East will be shut out this year because no team from that conference will end up in the top 18 in the BCS. That conference needs to be removed from the list of BCS Conferences, and I think that will happen soon unless they get 12 teams and a conference championship which is very unlikely. EDIT: Big East Champ is guaranteed a BCS bowl game. As far as LSU's hopes for a BCS bowl game go, we will be in direct competition with the 2nd best Big 12 team or a potential 1 loss Big 10 team. There is NO scenario in which the 2nd best Big 12 team would have less than 2 losses. So LSU will definitely be picked in that scenario. The main concern is a 1 loss Big 10 team who does not win the tie breaker for the Big 10 title. Will LSU be picked over them? I would think so.
The Only way it would happen is...... 1. Auburn has to loose to Georgia and bama 2. Oregon has to drop a game 3. LSU has to win out including and impressive win in the sec title game 4. No sec title game means no bcs championship game.
Not really a likely scenario but more of a wish. LSU and Auburn win out while Oregon and TCU lose...and Boise St if possible but I think we jump them in the polls anyway if we win out. LSU and Auburn wind up 1-2 in the BCS and maybe we could set the thing on fire since the BCS has stipulations by not allowing two teams from the same conference to play each other. Then in an even unlikely-er scenario the Sugar Bowl says to LSU and Auburn...come play here. I like monkey wrenches... PS...Great work as always Izzy
But they would already be taking the Big 10. They are losing their Pac 10 qualifier if Oregon goes to Glendale. So it could be LSU vs. Ohio State, or Iowa.
Correct about WVU. Why the heck they lost those last 2 games in such excruciating fashion is beyond me (well actually that head coach is a good starting point). And yes, just about every computer poll takes into consideration quality wins (top 10, top 15, top 25). So the more the better for LSU. We will have a most decided advantage in that regard over any other 1 loss team. I would go so far as to say we would be ranked #2 in every computer poll behind just TCU given every other team has at least 1 loss. We just need enough teams to wedge themselves in between LSU and Boise State to keep that decided advantage in the computer polls. Hard to tell how that will shake out because on one hand we need these undefeated teams to lose, on the other hand they may fall behind Boise State in the computer polls (although a 1 loss Auburn team would not in most of the polls).
If Stanford ends up with only 1 loss and near top 5, they are most certainly going to Glendale. The Rose gets first replacement for Oregon/PAC 10. And then the Big 10 Champ automatically goes. Iowa won't go unless all 3 one loss Big 10 teams lose and someone Iowa has the tiebreaker.
