Election 2020

Discussion in 'Free Speech Alley' started by Tiger in NC, Jul 26, 2020.

  1. BAY0U BENGAL

    BAY0U BENGAL I'm a Chinese Bandit

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    this hasn’t ever been legal. SOP 101 brobeans.
     
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  2. Bengal B

    Bengal B Founding Member

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    If you believe it, it's not a lie. - George Costanza. I didn't state that as a fact where I have all the details but for anybody capable of thinking it's a plausible suspicion. If you see smoke you don't have to see the fire to know something is burning.
     
  3. Jmg

    Jmg Veteran Member

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    you alleged this was a russian plot. but the emails are not fake russian inventions they are real. how is it russians if they are real?
     
  4. Bengal B

    Bengal B Founding Member

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    I'm sure the average enlisted man would rather be stationed somewhere like Germany with lots of pretty frauleins and plenty of good beer than risking his life because some politicians wanted to start an unnecessary war in some hellhole like Iraq or Afghanistan. How were we protecting the security of America in those wars? It goes all the way back to Vietnam. We used to fight wars for the right reasons - WWI and WWII and Korea.

    I support the servicemen wholeheartedly. That doesn't mean I support the opinions of a few who see thing in a way that is different from reality.
     
  5. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    So, just so I am understanding your reasoning here, you are saying that conservatives didn't do oppositional research for the past 50 years? Because I remember the 2008 election and the 2012 election and every year in between. Like any other election if Republicans had this information they would have used it. Most importantly it simply isn't true. It's a lie and part of a Russian disinformation campaign aimed at defaming Biden to help Dear Leader again. It's probably the most ham-handed attempt that the Trump campaign has made to date. Have you heard about Rudy's fiasco with Borat? Sounds hilarious....and that's your source.

    But that is a lie and you, nor anyone else, has one shred of evidence to support this. None. 0.

    My friend this is all part of a narrative that has been created by Trump. Trump's "America First" policies are more like America gets Fisted policies. I could go back to 2008 and 2012 and you guys were preaching the same things. How many of them have come true?
     
  6. Winston1

    Winston1 Founding Member

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    Here’s some more analysis of the state of the race. It provides a combined look at the many data points showing that Trump is weaker than 2016 by every measure.
    [​IMG]
    1. Campaign Numerology
    This is the point on the ride where everyone freaks out and decides that the polls must be wrong. That you can’t trust the numbers. That something real is happening that isn’t being captured in the data.

    Maybe there is something happening that we can’t see. It’s possible.

    But I doubt it. Because the most striking thing about the global view that both the national and state polls give us is how much they make sense in the context of one another.

    The cross-tabs of demographic support make sense given the top-line national levels. The top-line national levels are consistent with what we see in almost all of the state level polling. And almost all of the horse-race polling is consistent with the long-running job approval numbers of the the president.

    There’s a lot of signal here. And it all points in the same direction.

    Before we start, never forget the foundation of this race: Donald Trump began his presidency on the wrong side of voters. He was elected with 46 percent of the vote and started out in a -3 million vote hole.

    Did the data from his term ever look like he was adding to that coalition?

    No.

    People have never liked the job Donald Trump has done as president. Not one bit.

    [​IMG]
    So what would you expect the national numbers to look like for a president who began his term with 46 percent of the vote and was then substantially net-negative on job approval for four years? You would expect his national support to be lower than 46 percent.

    Presto.

    [​IMG]
    Now, if Trump’s national average has dropped, you would expect to see him losing ground with various demographic groups when you look at the cross tabs.

    In 2016 Trump was +7 with voters over 65 and -13 with women. No matter what poll you look at, Trump has declined with both. Pew has him at ±0 with seniors and -16 with women. Pew’s poll is n=10,543 so it’s a pretty good sample, but you see this trend basically everywhere. Trump has gone backwards with seniors and women (among other groups) and hasn’t really gained appreciably with anyone aside from Hispanic males.

    So if Trump’s national numbers are down and his numbers with many demographic groups are down, then we’d expect to see him losing ground in state polling, too.

    Have a look:

    [​IMG]
    Note that none of these states are the big battlegrounds. We’re looking only at places Trump won comfortably in 2016 and that have, for the most part, very favorable demographics for him. And they’re exhibiting the same trends we see everywhere else: Trump’s position declining relative to 2016.

    When you look at the battlegrounds, you see the same again:

    [​IMG]
    By now you should sense a pattern. No matter which way you look at this race, Donald Trump is in a measurably worse position than he was in 2016.

    The Trump people will tell you that all of these numbers are wrong. The polls are skewed. The samples are bad. There are shy Trump voters who don’t show up.

    Maybe? But there is no actual evidence for any of that.

    Ask yourself this: Is Trump showing a 9 point decline in West Virginia because of all the shy Trump voters down in the hollers?

    On the other hand, all of the available evidence collected over four years of survey work points in the exact same direction:

    A president elected with a minority vote share spent four years being deeply unpopular, lost ground across most demographic groups, and is now on track to finish with an even smaller vote share, both in states he won in 2016 and states he lost.

    It’s not that complicated.
     
  7. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    Sorry pal but I think it is you who doesn't seem to understand that Trump's net tax for that year was $750. That means that after tax credits his liability totaled $750. He might have paid taxes throughout the year but at the end of the day the number on the bottom line was that he owed $750. Hell, he paid a hell of a lot more than that on his Chinese bank accounts.
     
  8. LSUpride123

    LSUpride123 PureBlood

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    Yes because he prepiad the years before. Look it up.

    Also, please refer to:

     
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  9. LSUpride123

    LSUpride123 PureBlood

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    Early voting data in Florida is showing Biden doing "worse" than Clinton did. I think we can stop linking polls now.

    These are the counties to watch:

    upload_2020-10-22_17-26-7.png
     
  10. Bengal B

    Bengal B Founding Member

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    I just can't believe that the majority of American voters would vote to what is effect would make Kamala Harris president. See my post earlier where I said that if there were separate voting for president and vice president Biden would win easily and Mike Pence would be the vice president again.
     

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